🇺🇸 Donald Trump remains the leader in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination process, but his support has fallen by a third over the past week-and-a-half.
🇺🇸 Marco Rubio doubled his polling to 10%, Carly Fiorina also moved to 8%, Huckabee lost more than half his support from 7%, loosing 4%, to 3%.
🇺🇸 Rasmussen Reports post-Debate National Telephone Survey finds Trump with 17% support among Likely Republican Primary Voters, down from 26% in late July before the first GOP debate. This may be a statistical anomaly, or is this the first signs of the bursting of Trump’s Blustering Bubble. Pardon the cliche, but time will tell, if the national audience will become tired of the “bomb throwing” and blustering by Trump, with no apparent solutions.
🇺🇸 Senator Marco Rubio and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are in second place with 10% support each, in a near tie with Fiorina and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker who both earn nine percent (9%) of the likely primary vote.
🇺🇸 Rubio has doubled his level of support to 10% from 5% in late July. Carson has gained slightly.
🇺🇸 Walker has fallen dramatically to back five points to 9% from 14% 10 days ago, while support for Bush and Cruz has held steady. Next with 8% come retired neurologist Dr. Ben Carson and Senator Ted Cruz at 7%.
🇺🇸 Mike Huckabee, who ran for the GOP nomination unsuccessfully in 2012, also lost ground to 3%, more than -50% support, among likely primary voters, falling from 7% support to 3% post FOX Presidential debate.
🇺🇸 National Survey of 651 GOP Primary Voters, Conducted August 9-10, 2015, By Rasmussen Reports. As most professional polling enterprises know, The Rasmussen Report is one of most accurate non-partisan polling organizations.
Below is a direct link to Rasmussen Reports, the primary source for this article.
🇺🇸 Exact Wording of the Polling Question:
“At this time, 17 major candidates have officially announced that they are running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. If the 2016 Republican presidential primary were held in your state TODAY, for whom would you vote: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump or Scott Walker?
🇺🇸 Statistical Margin of Error for the sampling is +/- 4%, with a 95% level of confidence. Mathematically speaking, applying the +/- 4% Margin of Error for this Rasmussen sampling to five of the Top Tier Candidates, all FIVE of the Top Tier Candidates are “Statistically Tied” at 13% to 14%.
Statistically speaking the Media could accurately report the following headline:
Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush are statistically tied at 14%, with Trump, Walker and Carly Fiorina are tied at 13%.
🇺🇸 Marco Rubio 10%+4% = 14%
🇺🇸 Jeb Bush 10%+4% = 14%
🇺🇸 Donald Trump 17%-4% = 13%
🇺🇸 Scott Walker 9%+4% = 13%
🇺🇸 Carly Fiorina 9%+4% = 13%
🇺🇸 FOX’s August Debate Thursday at 5pm for the Bottom 7 in the recent National Average of 5 recent polls. At 8:50pm FOX’s second Debate will be held for the Top 10 Presidential Candidates running for 2 hours, followed by 60 minutes of analysis.
🇺🇸 FOX NEWS 2016 has developed an iPhone App named Election HQ where users can participate using the App indicating that you either AGREE with the Candidate’s response {Live in Real Time} DISAGREE, or the Candidate is DODGING the question or being non-responsive. FOX will be showing these live statistics throughout their BROADCAST. This should add some fun and interactivity with the Debate Audience while the debate is underway.
🇺🇸 The Political Science of Polling in a very imprecise statistical sampling is the topic of this article. However, this topic will be utilizing the principal of “keep it simple” so everyone will learn how to Digest the figures that the News Media throw at us every Day.
🇺🇸 The Panel above is what you’d be looking for in Apple’s APP STORE. It is a free App that works on an iPhone or iPad. FOX also has an Android version.
🇺🇸 Understanding the Numbers is not the easy task of simply looking at which figure is bigger. Polling analysis also requires carefully examination of the Question given to the Statistically Sampled Population, and the Methodology of selecting the Sampled Group of participants.
🇺🇸 Meaning of the Polling Statistics is determined by the
(A) Group Sampled, is the group representative of the whole
(B) Question Asked, is the question direct and unambiguous
(C) Polling Question that are improperly worded and/or ambiguous may likely deliver inconsistent responses to the Poll Database.
🇺🇸 FOX Presidential Prime Time August 2015 Debate. Above is the podium layout for FOX’s broadcast to begin at 8:50pm on Thursday, August 6th. FOX used the current average of five national polling statistics, where the Top Two Candidates are at Center-Stage, then Scott Walker is 3rd at Left, and Huckabee 4th on the Right, and likewise for the other 6 candidates.
🇺🇸 FOX Presidential 5PM Broadcast August 2015 Debate. Above is the podium layout for FOX’s broadcast to begin at 5:00pm for one Hour on Thursday, August 6th. FOX used the current average of five national polling statistics, where the Top Two Candidates of the bottom 7, are at Center-Stage, then the next ranking is at Left, and the next on the Right, and likewise for the remaining candidates.
🇺🇸 Larry Sabado’s Crystal Ball internet site created at University of Virginia, as Larry is the Chair of the nationally known Center for Politics. The three panels below Sabado updated on August 3rd, 2015.
http://ift.tt/1wCX0b7
🇺🇸 Scientific, Non Biased Public Opinion Poll is a type of survey or inquiry designed to measure the public’s views regarding a particular topic or Candidates, or series of topics. Carefully trained interviewers ask precisely scripted questions, of people that may be chosen at random from the population being measured, or pelople that are stratified by “Likely Voters” or “Voted in the 2012 Election.”
🇺🇸 Public Opinion Polling Responses are collected, and interpretations of the statistics are made based on examination of the responses. It is important in a Random-Sampling that everyone in the population being studied has an equal chance of participating. Otherwise, the results could be biased and, therefore, not representative of the population. Representative samples are chosen in order to make generalizations about a particular population being studied.
🇺🇸 Professor Ian McAllister has studied trends of federal elections since 1987. “Voters like to back a winner, they don’t like to back a loser so if they see a Party or Individual leading in the polls they’re much more likely to gravitate towards it,” he says.
🇺🇸 Research into the ‘bandwagon effect’ in the United States and the UK have been widely quoted. In terms of the actual elections themselves, nobody wants to be the early-leader, everybody wants to be the underdog. The political party leading in the polls can get a bounce of one, two, or three percent at the Ballot Box as young, undecided voters jump on the bandwagon.
🇺🇸 Bandwagon Effect Theory, it’s not a huge effect in percentage terms; However, in closely fought elections, 0.5% to 1.0% can be the difference between Winning or Loosing the Election. Particularly, in the United States, the bandwagon effect has been extensively analyzed and debated during presidential and primary elections.
🇺🇸 Polls tell us what proportion of a population has a specific viewpoint towards a Political Candidate or topic. They do not explain why respondents believe as they do or how to change their minds. This is the work of social scientists and scholars. Polls are simply a measurement tool that tells us how a population “thinks and feels” about any given Political Candidate or topic, at this precise Moment in Time.
🇺🇸 Polling can be useful in helping different cultures understand one another because it gives the people a chance to speak for themselves instead of letting only vocal media {stars} speak on behalf of all. Opinion polling gives people who do not usually have access to the media an opportunity to be heard.
🇺🇸 Reading Opinion Polls. Percentages in an opinion poll reflect the proportion of a given population that has a particular response. If the results of a scientific poll claiming a 3% Margin of Error {MoE} say that 30% of Americans like Vanilla Ice Cream, this means that if we asked all Americans this identical question, we would expect between 27% and 33% to say they like Vanilla Ice Cream.
🇺🇸 Scientific Polls compared to Snap Polling. When a radio or TV station asks its listeners to call in to vote on a particular issue, the results of this polling activity are not scientific because the sample is not representative of the population in the listening area. The sample reflects only the people who happen to be watching or listening to the Broadcast and are also motivated to call in. This polling data cannot be extrapolated or generalized to represent the whole population because the respondents were not randomly selected, and therefore, they are not uniformly representative.
🇺🇸 Current Polling of the Presidential Candidates may be more indicative of the level of TV and Print coverage than one’s true preference when voting. Briefly, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are receiving almost all of the current Media Coverage, and accordingly they are receiving higher and increasing polling results.
🇺🇸 Hillary Clinton however, the current news is unfavorable regarding her destroying information that was Subpoenaed by Congress, and now a DC Judge is threatening judicial action for the non-delivery of information and the insecure home-brew server.
🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 Trump Polling Anomaly 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸
🇺🇸 The Trump Anomaly. What is causing the apparent “surge” in the polling for Donald Trump, and what do these number mean? For the Republican candidates the Donald is a “Media Sensation” because of his brash and insulting remarks. Trump is very effectively manipulating the media. Every Day Trump develops another annoying or prejudicial remark and the media follows Trump wherever he goes… So it should be no surprise that current polling reflects increasing polling results for Trump.
🇺🇸 Trump currently holds 23.2% of the Republican Polling Preferences as of August 3, 2015 according to the Real Clear Politics {RCP} average of the most recent 5 National Polls. Looking at the RCP statistics, if Trump holds 23% favorable, then 77% are not supporting Trump. Importantly, it is not a surprise that remaining 15 republican candidates cannot garner a significant percentage. Simply dividing the remaining 77% by 15 yields an average of about 5%. If one factors in the +3%|-3% sampling Margin of Error, (MOE) the “statistical average” is similar to 8%, adding in the sampling margin of error.
🇺🇸 What does the Margin of Error really mean. Lets look at the NBC/WSJ polling through 7/30, TRUMP leads with 19%, Walker at 15% and Bush at 14%. If one applies the MOE to these statistics, Trump could be 19%-3%=16%, Walker at 15%+3%=18%, and Bush at 14%+3%=17%. Therefore, anyone familiar with interpreting statistics that involve a sampling margin of error, these 3 Candidates are all Statistically Tied.
🇺🇸 The Media is looking for Startling Headlines, so they run the story “Trump is Surging.” IMHO the Media is creating the TRUMP statistics, as that’s what they want to cover.
🇺🇸 Here’s what I think about the Trump Factor. Twenty Percent of the voters are angry and what the politicians out. Trump is appealing to this sentiment and is garnering their poll call. Add to this factor that the Media is almost exclusively covering Trump, which is creating a “self fulfilling prophecy”.
🇺🇸 Media Coverage of Presidential Candidates. When the media covers the another Presidential candidates, the Media interviewers are asking what they think about Trump and his bombastic remarks, rather than what these Candidates think about their issue positions. Eventually, the Media will calm themselves, as Trump’s stats will eventually plateau.
🇺🇸 What do You Think ?
🇺🇸 Real Clear Politics on-line publishes the most current Polling Preferences for all Presidential Candidates, past and present, with an excellent and comprehensive archive of data.
★ FOX News Methodology: (For Example) All results are for release after 6:00 P.M. ET Monday, August 3, 2015. The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers July 30-August 2, 2015 among a random national sample of 1,306 registered voters (RV).
★ FOX Polling Results is based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of +/-3% {plus or minus three percentage points}. Landline and cell phone telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means that phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state.
Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.
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