🔵 Real Clear Politics publishes comprehensive polling results onto their website that lists all recent National and State Polling results. The graphic below displays the polls through October 4th, 2015. Our effort with these articles is to “cut through” most of the hype, and give to you a unbiassed relatively brief analysis of the Candidates’ Polling Performance that everyone can understand.
🔵 National Polls || State Polling. It is believed at this early point in the Campaigns, the Local Polling is less reliable delivering sporadic results. Therefore, we will be focusing our attention onto the National Polling. Mid-December, with less than 8 weeks until the first State Primary, IOWA then NEW HAMPSHIRE, we will turn our focus onto Head-to-Head Polling results by State geography, and Nationally.
🔵 Real Clear Politics (RCP) displays and tabulates Polling Results periodically reported by the leading polling organizations, locally and nationally. Four of the most asked questions when reviewing polling data are as follows:
(A) How is TRUMP performing in recent weeks
(B) How is TRUMP now in comparison to weeks ago
(C) How will TRUMP perform in the Polls in future weeks
(D) How will Candidates emerge as Trump’s Poll trend continues.
🔵 (A) How is TRUMP performing in recent weeks? Examining the polls during the past month, and in particular the recent 12 days, TRUMP’s polling results are definitely trending down. Looking at the first 12 days of October, TRUMP’s Polling data for the current 4 national polls are 27%, 27%, 24%, and 17%, for an average of 23.8%. TRUMP’s polling results trend is definitely downward.
🔵 (B) How is TRUMP now in comparison to weeks ago? September 10th ABC/Washington Post poll had TRUMP at 33% leading Carson by 13%. Apparently polling over 30% represents Trumps’ polling cap. Could it be that Trump’s blustering attacks taking a toll on his popularity. Within 14 days, on September 24th Trumps polling results came down to 21% according to the Bloomberg Poll. Note, the benefit of Real Clear Politic’s polling data presentation, they report each Poll’s results with a Link to the detail of each Poll, and RCP presents an AVERAGE of recent Polls. Looking at these averages from time to time gives a better view of Trends.
🔵 (C) How will TRUMP perform in the Polls in future weeks? Trump is leading the next best Candidate by only 2.5% currently. Just 10 days before, Trump was up 6% on Average as compared to the next best candidate. One may predict that by the end of October, the Republican Field will be more evenly balanced, with the other Candidates, receiving some of Trump’s followers, as Trump continues to alienate folks with his blustering insults. This week, Trump blames Bush 43 for the 9/11 strike, yet offers nothing on how Trump would have made the USA safer to that attack.
🔵 (D) How will Candidates emerge as Trump’s Poll trend continues? There are two factors for Viable Candies to emerge. Firstly, as Trump continues to drop in the Polls, some of his followers will move to other candidates. Also, as some of the Candidates that are Polling under 2% for the 4 to 6 weeks drop out. Its amazing that these 5 candidates continue to remain in the “Race” with an extremely low likelihood of becoming the Republican Nominee.
🔢 These 6 Candidates cannot currently raise MONEY to make a meaningful run, really should get out of the Race so that attention is focused on the remaining 7. Apparently their “egos” are interfering with their intellect. It is unbelievable that these 6 candidates remain in the Race, considering that they are having extreme difficulties raising campaign contributions, not to mention that their Polling Results are terrible.
1⃣ Graham @ 0.3%
2⃣ Pataki @ 0.5%
3⃣ Jindan @ 0.8%
4⃣ Santorum @ 1.0%
5⃣ Paul @ 2%
6⃣ Huckabee @ 2%
🔵 One More Point to Contemplate. Weeks ago dating back to August, the Major Networks were covering Trump in an unprecedented fashion, likely because of his “celebrity” status, and ratings. There were occasions that Networks would interrupt prime-time programming to cover a Trump campaign event, with no commercial breaks, for over an hour, as if it was a Presidential Press Conference… Recently, Trump’s “wall to wall” free coverage has stopped. Apparently, Trump’s “shine” is beginning to tarnish, as folks no longer find his insults entertaining, and turn to another Channel when Trump appears.
🔵 Examine Real Clear Politics summary of Polling Averages for the period of October 1st through October 12th. Firstly, Trump and Carson lead the group capturing 45% of the vote combined
🔵 The Next 6 Viable Republican Candidates shows movement between each, one showing a steady climb in the polls, a few loosing support, and the bottom two, Kasich and Christie remain below 3% for a number of weeks..
🔵 Rubio has moved Up to 10.3% now in 3rd Place
🔵 Cruz is now polling at 8.0%, increasing 1.8%
🔵 Bush is now polling at 8.0%, down 0.4%
🔵 Fiorina is now polling at 6.5% loosing a sizable 40% of her support
🔵 Kasich is now polling at 2.8% down marginally
🔵 Christie is now polling at 2.0% down marginally
🔴 RUBIO vs TRUMP • Rubio Wins in Two Man Race: 50% to 43% • Presidential Primary Race • 2015 • October 6th 🔴
🔵 Head-to-Head Match-ups • TWO Candidate match-ups • This is the Polling statistic that has meaning. With 15 currently in the Republican primary “Race,” trying to make any sense of the Polling Percentages of each is a “Fools Errand.” However, lets limit the Polling Question in this way, “Vote for One of these Two Candidates.”
🔵 Public Policy Polling (PPP), conducts very comprehensive polls. In their current polling data, PPP asked about preferences for all the candidates in the group, AND a separate section comparing TWO man races, to see how various candidates matchup against the “Front Runner” in the polls, to see how Trump performs against several Republican competitors.
🔵 It would not be practical for PPP to ask how each of the Top 6 candidates would matchup against each other as there would be over 200 possible combinations. The Poller and the Voter would be on the Polling Questionnaire for hours.
🔵 PPP has chosen to matchup the current Front-Runner against 3 or 4 of the other “viable” Candidates. By matching up several primary candidates that have been showing recent strength, or that have been in the Media with newsworthy events, will give the public and the campaign strategists signals if the Candidate’s “Messaging” is effective or not. Below are some interesting results.
🔵 RUBIO vs TRUMP, Rubio Wins in a Two Man Race: 50% to 43%
🔵 TRUMP vs BUSH, Trump Wins in a Two Man Race: 56% to 36
🔵 Public Policy Polling, the PPP Polls, below is the LINK to see their comprehensive 96 page report dated October 6, 2015. A Graphic is displayed below, which represents a single-page showing some interesting unreported data, that the Network NEWS has not Reported. The RUBIO head-to-head results is likely why Trump has been recently “pounding Rubio” every time Trump gets On Camera. PPP discovered that for the TWO Man races polled, Trump only wins against BUSH. However, Trump also looses against the other top three Republican contenders, Rubio, Carson and Fiorina. To view the full report go to this link: (PPP Link: http://goo.gl/0bA3ue)
🔴 Polling Results are assembled and evaluated, periodically (every 7 to 10 days) and editorialized from our “non-pollster” perspective. These reports show the most current Polling Results. Each Poll’s percentages are totaled and presented as an average corresponding to each candidate, displayed at the pop of the table.
🔴 TRUMP scores the highest percentage with 22% preference for his candidacy, using at the 3 most current Polls conducted. An interesting point, Trump’s polling results appear to be contracting or wobbling from 17% to the mid-twenties. Several weeks ago Trump was polling over 32%, where his current average polling stats average 22%. There is much debate from paid Political Analysts regarding Trump’s polling results. Many say, Trump’s “bullying, blustering, and insulting” remarks coupled with little Policy-speak, Trump’s “polling popularity” may have reached a ceiling. Trump may have difficulty in garnering polling results over current levels. Since we seem to be entering the “Policy Phase” of this primary season, Trump will have to deliver substantive responses for his positions; if not, his Polling results may drop further.
🔴 RUBIO has been slowly but steadily Climbing to 11% in the Polling average. Of course the higher a candidate climbs in the Polls, the MEDIA attention becomes more focused onto the Candidate. In our opinion, this focus will benefit Rubio, as he has an excellent command of the important topics discussed, and delivers sincere, unscripted, energetic responses. Rubio’s robust and competent responses should garner confidence in his candidacy and delivery higher polling results.
🔴 There are 8 candidates polling over 3%, plus 7 candidates polling under 3%. For the 7 candidates polling under 3%, 4 candidates are polling under 1%; Accordingly, there remains too many candidates for the statistics to be meaningful. Until the number of candidates drops to 4 or 5 viable candidates, the pool non-Trump polling remains split into too many buckets. Simple math: Let’s take the non-Trump POOL of candidates (100% less Trump’s 22% = 78%), then divide 78% equally by 11 (all the other candidates over 1%) equates to 7.8% each.
🔴 Polling Results • Another Perspective View. Polling Organizations like PPP, ask many questions to qualify each potential Voter for the poll. For example, if the Poll assignment is an opinion-poll for Registered Republicans, the Poller will disqualify, non-registered voters and those leaning democratic. They also ask questions such as “If you were Voting Today which Candidate is your First Pick.”
🔴 Pollers may also ask “If you were Voting Today which Candidate is your Second Pick.” When looking at the 2nd Choice Picks by those being Polled, TRUMP does not perform to the level of his 1st Pick polling. RUBIO, Fiorina, Carson, Cruz all Poll better for 2nd Choice than does TRUMP. One may deduce, Trump has a “firm following” of 22%, but Trump is not polling well for the other 78% of the folks, that didn’t pick Trump as their 1st Pick.
🔴 CARSON and FIORINA are grouped together as their Polling results appear to have peaked with results wavering or showing signs of “steady” decline. Notice that with each new Poll Fiorina’s results are declining several points. Carson’s polling results are fluctuating up and down. After four subsequent weeks of polling results, these trends will develop further.
🔴 JEB BUSH is displaying steady Declines, with most of the Polling. Apparently, there are a number of Candidates in this political cycle that are out-performing Bush. These campaigns are lengthly, where early results are not necessarily definitive. However, as the saying goes…
🔵 You don’t get a Second chance at a First impression.
🔴 National Polls || State Polling. It is believed at this early point in the Campaigns, the Local Polling is less reliable delivering sporadic results. Therefore we will be focusing our attention onto the National Polling. Mid-December, with less than 8 weeks until the first State Primary, IOWA then NEW HAMPSHIRE, we will focus on Head-to-Head Polling results by State geography.
🔴 Real Clear Politics publishes comprehensive polling results onto their website that lists all recent National and State Polling results. The graphic below displays the polls through October 4th, 2015.
🔴 Real Clear Politics graphical presentation of the recent National Polls is displayed below. Notice that this chart has been trimmed to show only the TOP 3 Presidential Candidates. However, to see their entire panel of candidates click onto this Link: http://goo.gl/0OWZge
🔴 IBD/TIPP Poll has an established proven track-record for Best Polling Accuracy, based on its performance in the past three presidential elections. In a comparison of the final results of various pollsters for the 2004 and 2008 elections, IBD/TIPP was the most accurate.New York Times has also concluded that IBD/TIPP was the most accurate among 23 Polling Organizations for the three weeks immediately preceding the 2012 elections.
🔵 Voting Matters, Primary Voting Matters, Primary Campaigns Matter
🔵 Public Policy Polling, the PPP Polls, below is the LINK to see the entire report. A Graphic is also displayed below, which represents a single-page showing some interesting unreported data, that the Networks have not mentioned.
🔵 Head-to-Head Match-ups, TWO Candidate match-ups, namely Vote for One of these Two Candidates: TRUMP vs BUSH, Trump Wins 56% to 36%; for TRUMP vs RUBIO, Rubio wins 50% to 43%. Take a look at the Page Below, Questions Q18, Q19, Q20, Q21.
🔵 To view the entire report go to this link
• PPP Report’s Link to the 10/6/2015 Poll: http://goo.gl/0bA3ue
• PPP Link to main Polling site: http://ift.tt/1hLXnhL
Please note that we will begin commenting on the Democratic Primary Campaigns, commencing mid-October with their 1st Democratic Primary Presidential Debate.
★★ Primary Campaigns ★ The 3 Phase Plan ★★
🔴 Primary Campaign Phases, 3-Phases, the 3P’s of Primary Campaigns. Professional Political Consultants say that primary campaigns have three basic phases, the PPP of primary politics.
🔴 Personality Phase, Policy Phase, Presidential Phase; Each Phase has a duration of roughly 10 weeks, and transitions to the next phase are based on Campaign Strategies, Presidential Debates, Current Events, and Media demands.
🔴 Personality Phase, the Policy Phase and the Presidential Phase. As a very Politically Interested citizen, I’m certainly not an expert in political science. However, here’s my take on what’s going on this political season. As polling results are published we will attempt to give our “man on the street” interpretation and possible reasoning for the outcomes, leading for the next series of polls.
🔴 Professionals in the Political arena say that the lead for the Candidates will change 5 or 6 times before we get into the first State Primaries starting in February, 2016.
🔴 Personality Phase. The 1st Phase of Political Campaigns, the first time-traunch, is considered the “Personality Phase.” In this 1st Phase the candidates are introducing themselves (or re-introducing themselves) to the political primary audience of the respective political parties, even though the candidates may already be generally known; however, these Presidential hopefuls have now launched their candidacy, and the folks are beginning to take notice. In this 1st Phase, the candidates are focusing on having the public get to know each other, as presidential candidates, in effort to increase their “likability” and decrease their “negatives.” With this current 2015 Primary season, the “Personality Phase” has been running strong for about 10-12 weeks.
🔴 Policy Phase. The 2nd Phase of Primary Campaigns. Now that the Personality Phase is coming to an end (hopefully), the Candidates eventually (now) have to turn their attention to Policy Issues that face the Nation domestically (Economy, Jobs, Boarder Security, Health Care, plus other domestic issues) and externally (World affairs, National Security, Mid-East, National Defense, and other global concerns).
🔴 CNN hosted 2nd Presidential Debate. You may have noticed during the 2nd Presidential Debate hosted by CNN, the moderators focused the second-half of the debate to National Security issues, War, Peace, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Israel, Libya, North Africa… It was interesting that TRUMP was very quiet (surprisingly, 30+ minutes of silence) during the National Security questioning. Trump apparently has not taken the time to become adequately briefed in world affairs. Donald admits “… I get most of my information about World Affairs from News Reports.”
🔴 RUBIO was Actively Participating with the National Security questioning in the CNN Debate, as he is very knowledgable about matters relating to our National Security and the threats that face the Nation. In stark contrast to Trump, RUBIO is currently a Sitting Member of two very important Senate Select Committees, the Foreign Relations Committee and the Intelligence Committee. This Issues-based 2nd Phase will likely take the Campaigns through the end of November, 2015. Link to the Senate Select Committees: http://goo.gl/bVqjyT. It will be interesting to hear the Candidates articulate their Policy views during this 2nd Phase of the Campaigns. The 2nd Phase separates the Confident Policy Leaders from the Blusters and the Clueless, and the Talkers from the Doers.
🔴 The Presidential Phase, the 3rd Phase of the Political Campaign. Can the Voters actually visualize this Candidate as The President of the United States. This 3rd Phase of Primary Campaigns is an extremely important period of time. This is the time that Primary Voters are digesting the impressions obtained from their “favorite presidential candidates” assimilated from the previous two phases of the campaigns. Accordingly, the Candidates are drawing together their Personality and Policy strengths using succinct messaging at News Interviews and as displayed by there Paid Advertising. Hopefully, the number of viable candidates will reduce from 16 to 6 or less. Voters are competent as a Group.
Voters can Pick the Best from the Rest.
🔴 Polling Results delivers Important Indicators for Campaigns, as it provides signals to the Campaigns whether or not their “messaging” is effective. Polling also provides signals to the political Contributors, as to whether (or not) to (continue) support their candidate. It is not believable that all or most Contributors require some form a “quid pro quo” from their Candidate in exchange for their financial support. In making political contributions with Money (and/or Effort) to Campaigns, whether for Democrats or Republicans, from JF Kennedy, Reagan, Bush, to Obama, most expected nothing in return. Contributions are made because it is believed the Candidate most closely paralleled our beliefs for the important matters. TRUMP touts his political canard, that he is beholden to no one, as he’s self financing his campaign. Baloney.
🔴 IBD/TIPP latest October 1st, 2015 POLL shows TRUMP in 2nd, which is 7% behind Ben Carson, outside the ±5% MOE, margin of error. Donald Trump has continuously boasted that he’s “leading every poll and in most cases with BIG margins. “Not the case anymore, Donald!
🔴 Nationwide IBD/TIPP October 1st survey found that 24% of Republican Primary Voters are backing Carson, compared with 17% who say they support Trump. Marco Rubio came in 3rd with 11%. RUBIO’s polling results are particularly good news, as he has been steadily climbing in recent polling, with reported excellent performances in the last 2 Presidential Debates, the 1st Debate moderated by FOX, and the 2nd moderated by CNN.
🔴 Real Clear Politics publishes comprehensive polling results onto their website (http://goo.gl/0OWZge) that lists all recent National and State Polling results. The graphic below displays the polls through October 5th, 2015.
🔴 Real Clear Politics graphical presentation of the recent National Polls is displayed below. Notice that this chart has been trimmed to show only the TOP 7 Presidential Candidates. However, to see their entire panel of candidates click onto this Link: http://goo.gl/0OWZge
🔴 Rubio is Polling Nationally in 3rd place at 11%, and Carly Fiorina 4th place at 9%. Jeb Bush, months ago was considered a prohibitive favorite, ranked in 5th place with only 8% support. Those who say they remain “Undecided” rests at 9%. As time progresses, the Undecideds will decrease, and the Leaders will be more defined as the unpopular Candidates drop out of contention.
🔴 With the current Crowded Field of Republican Presidential hopefuls, it is difficult for candidates to mount large statistical leads. However, Trump apparently has accumulated true supporters plus the “anti-establishment” crowd which is currently Shrinking with Time.
🔴 IBD/TIPP Poll has an established proven track-record for Best Polling Accuracy, based on its performance in the past three presidential elections. In a comparison of the final results of various pollsters for the 2004 and 2008 elections, IBD/TIPP was the most accurate.New York Times has also concluded that IBD/TIPP was the most accurate among 23 Polling Organizations for the three weeks immediately preceding the 2012 elections.
🔴 Rubio is among the Highest Group for the Combination of 1st Choice plus 2nd Choice. An interesting Read of the Polling Results. One measure of the polling data is to look deeper into the polling results, to see which Candidates have been selected 1st Choice Pick, and which candidate is their 2nd Choice. If you Add the Candidate’s 1st choice picks with their 2nd Choice picks, TRUMP falls to deeply into the Crowd, as few select Trump as their 2nd choice candidate.
🔴 IBD/TIPP’s current scientific poll of October 1st, 2015 POLL, conducted for the period from Sept. 26 to Oct. 1, included 377 registered voters who are Republican or Registered Independents, who lean toward the Republican Party, with a margin of error of ±5% points, also referred to as a MOE of ±5%.
🔴 Understanding Polling Results, and using a MOE of ±5%. Since Carly Fiorina is currently at 9% and Jeb Bush is polling at 8%, they are within the ±5% MOE and are considered to be “Statistically Tied” although the Networks hardly ever mention who are statistically tied. Further since, Carson is 7% higher than Trump, Carson is clearly higher in the Polls because their polling results differ by an amount greater than the Poll’s declared MOE of ±5%.
🔴 Polling Organizations declare their poll’s margin of error, along with the Polling Data. Generally speaking, the greater the number of participants in the polling data, the lower the margin of error. The scrutiny applied to selecting the participants, their geography, and previous voting trends, help to reduce the margin of error.
🔴 Understanding and Interpreting Polling Data is a very complex topic. True scientific polling requires careful selection of the participants, their voting experience, age grouping, geography, political preferences, etc. This Link provides to you the methodology and other matters regarding PEW Research Polling. http://goo.gl/AMR2yz
🔴 Has TRUMP Peaked? Other polls show Trump’s support slipping in recent weeks. The Real Clear Politics average of six national polls shows him falling 7.2% from 30.5% to 23.3% during the last half of September. That average does not include the IBD/TIPP findings, which would bring the figures down a bit further.
🔴 “Things appear to be catching up with Trump on multiple fronts,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts IBD’s monthly poll. “In addition to facing increasing attacks from other candidates, Trump’s boycott of Fox News may have set him back,” Mayur said, noting that the poll was being conducted during Trump’s self-imposed hiatus. Think about all the Free-Press FOX News was unfairly giving TRUMP.
🔴 TRUMP was asked on CNBC recently about Donald’s slipping poll numbers… Trump said that “if I fell behind badly, and the media stopped inviting me to appear… I would certainly get out.” Carson’s gain comes after his controversial remarks on “Meet the Press” that he couldn’t support a Muslim for president. Rubio’s third-place standing shows he has gained considerable ground since the second GOP debate. But Fiorina, who was widely seen as having won the CNN debate, has been unable to capitalize on the media’s view of the Debate with Republican Primary Voters.
🔴 Marco Rubio has overtaken Donald Trump and secured second place for the first time in USA TODAY’s weekly GOP Power Rankings. Each week ask about 30 political experts from around the country who they think is the strongest candidate in the Republican field. Trump dominated in the first weeks of our survey. But last week, after a strong debate performance, Carly Fiorina knocked Trump from first place,
🔴 USA TODAY’s weekly GOP Power Rankings. Each week USA TODAY GOP Power Rankings asks 30 Political Experts from around the Country who these 30 Experts think is the strongest candidate in the Republican field. Trump dominated First Place for the first 3 weeks of their surveys.
🔴 This week RUBIO knocked out TRUMP out of Donald’s second place seat, based in part on RUBIO’s good post-debate performances with the Media and his Campaigning, and the fading of several other candidates. However, in the previous week (week 4) after a strong CNN debate performance, Carly Fiorina knocked Trump from first place held (Week 3). Click onto this Link to see the Current Week’s Results, as each Week this USA TODAY’s weekly GOP Power Rankings is updated. http://goo.gl/DHl1n6
🔴 USA TODAY GOP Power Rankings • Updated Weekly http://goo.gl/DHl1n6
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